EU entering winter with lowest gas reserves on record, IEA boss warns

Europe faces its toughest winter in years for energy supplies, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned, as the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran upends global fuel markets.

Fatih Birol told Al Jazeera on the sidelines of an international conference in Berlin on Wednesday that the continent is entering the cold season with gas stockpiles far below historical averages and cannot absorb another supply shock. Even an immediate ceasefire in the Gulf would not bring quick relief: Europe's liquefied natural gas costs are expected to keep rising in the coming months, he said.

"I think if we have a harsh winter, we may see higher prices of natural gas in Europe," Birol said. "Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year."

Before the war, nearly a tenth of Europe's LNG shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's attacks on vessels there have sharply cut imports, while flare-ups in the alternative Bab al-Mandeb strait have made matters worse, according to Birol. EU storage stands at only 72 percent full, compared with the usual 90 percent - a shortfall analysts say equals the energy needed to power 10 to 12 million homes. Ministers are reportedly weighing whether to ask households and businesses to ration consumption.

Birol said he was disappointed governments had not prepared sooner, noting that Middle Eastern countries are only now building pipelines to bypass Hormuz. Gas prices have already surged 140 percent since February, while Brent crude is trading well above $100 a barrel.

He also flagged a looming diesel shortage, partly caused by Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, which he said have cut about a third of Russian deliveries.