Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, end occupation of south

Many in Lebanon doubt Israel's October 27 election will bring meaningful change in Israeli policy toward their country or end the occupation of the south, Al Jazeera reports from Beirut.

"I don't think anything major – or at all – will change for Lebanon even if there's a change in [Israeli] leadership," Beirut lawyer Fouad Debs told the outlet, predicting only cosmetic shifts meant to show the world Israeli politics is "not messed up or evil."

Karim Safieddine, a Beirut-based fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said no candidate is promising a withdrawal or treating south Lebanon as a crisis, arguing the Israeli establishment regards Lebanon as "its prize."

The report recalls Israel-Hezbollah fighting since October 2023, escalations in September 2024 and March this year, and a June US-brokered framework deal — rejected by Hezbollah — meant to phase out Israeli forces. Israel still occupies large parts of the south, where it has demolished homes in dozens of villages and displaced over a million people, the report says.

Netanyahu's main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, a former army chief and architect of the "Dahiyeh Doctrine." But researcher Elia Ayoub told Al Jazeera rivals attack Netanyahu from the right on security, not humanitarian grounds, and he doubted Lebanon policy would change.

Safieddine called the limbo "a prolonged situation of neither war nor peace," warning the occupation could last a generation. Ayoub added the November 3 US midterms matter as much, shaping how emboldened Israel feels toward Palestinians, Lebanon and Syria.