Who deserves to win the Ballon d'Or? Messi, Yamal, Kane -- or someone else?

ESPN's Ryan O'Hanlon calls the Ballon d'Or a "silly award" — and then makes a serious case for who should win it.

The prediction markets have the men's race down to two favorites: 33-year-old Harry Kane, with about a two-in-three chance, and 19-year-old Lamine Yamal at 28%, leaving Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi splitting the rest. Messi, O'Hanlon notes, was actually the favorite before the World Cup final — Argentina's defeat in the final, which Messi called "part of the journey," flipped the board. "If Yamal scored a goal in the World Cup final, he'd probably be the heavy favorite," O'Hanlon writes.

The award's own rules barely help. Article 2 of the regulations says the prize rewards the best player regardless of nationality, but Article 4 ranks the voting criteria as individual performance first, then team success, then "class and fair play" — a contradiction that makes it possible to argue for almost anyone.

So O'Hanlon digs into the data. European journalists' team-of-the-month voting last season favored Kane with eight appearances, ahead of goalkeeper David Raya (seven) — who didn't even make the 30-man shortlist — plus Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice and Michael Olise with six each. At the World Cup, Messi led with five appearances, ahead of Jude Bellingham's four. And on goals plus expected attacking output across the big five leagues, Champions League and World Cup, Kane and Mbappé come out essentially equal, with Olise and Erling Haaland closing fast.

His final ballot: 1) Kane, 2) Olise, 3) Yamal, 4) Mbappé, 5) Haaland, 6) Rice, 7) Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, 8) Gabriel, 9) Messi, 10) Julián Álvarez. The winner, O'Hanlon says, gives us "the best of all worlds": Kane was great in domestic play, great in the Champions League, and great at the World Cup.